Employment Situation

It's official: the U.S. economy is in a recession. The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research announced last week that, after six consecutive years of healthy growth, the U.S. economy peaked in December 2007. "The peak marks the end of the expansion that began in November 2001 and the beginning of a recession," the committee stated.

Employment is one of the primary measures NBER uses in tracking the economy, and it noted that U.S. payrolls peaked last December and have declined every month since.

Historically, temporary and contract employment drops precipitously during recessions. In the last recession, for example, staffing employment began to fall several months before the recession actually began. Over the course of a year and a half, the industry lost 29% of its jobs, according to the quarterly ASA staffing employment and sales survey. In year-to-year comparisons of employment data during that period, there were four consecutive quarters of double-digit rates of decline.

So far in this recession, the pattern has been different. Unlike with previous recessions, staffing employment remained relatively unchanged for 10 months. For example, staffing employment declined only 2.5% from the first quarter through the third quarter of this year, according to the ASA employment and sales survey. And the ASA Staffing Index, which measures changes in temporary and contact employment, had been flat for most of the year, until it started showing sustained weekly declines in late September.

The November employment situation report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics suggests that precipitous declines in employment may now be upon the staffing industry. How long those sharp declines persist will depend in part on how long the recession lasts.

This recession is already longer than the last one. The 2001 recession lasted eight months. The U.S. economy, according to NBER, is currently in the 12th month of contraction. Until now, there had been 10 recessions since World War II, and they lasted an average of 10 months each. The longest recession in that period, in 1981–82, lasted 16 months. Even if this recession becomes the longest since World War II, it is probably more than half over. Many economists predict that the economy will begin to pull out of this downturn by the middle of next year.

Steve Berchem
Staffing Week December 8, 2008
American Staffing Association